China COVID-19 vaccines’ clinical data and commercial potential. In this report, we discuss China-developed COVID-19 vaccines’ technology platforms and clinical data, and their commercial prospects, including capacity, pricing, and potential role in overseas supply. Unprecedented vaccine development achievements around the globe and in China. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, vaccine development has achieved great heights faster than ever before. Though China is the first country to start vaccine clinical trials, China vaccine Ph3 trials have slightly fallen behind with Ph3 data and conditional approval coming in at YE2020. Inactivated vaccines have lower efficacy but probably slightly safer vs mRNA vaccines. We collected and compared Ph1/2/3 data of vaccines including China vaccines. Early clinical data appears to suggest the safety of inactivated vaccine is at least at par with mRNA vaccines but its efficacy might be lower. As expected, an inactivated vaccine from China reported Ph3 efficacy at ~79%, lower than 90%+ efficacy of mRNA vaccines. However, it is likely to be slightly safer vs mRNA vaccines, according to the brief data available. We will wait for complete Ph3 data to make a better comparison. We also discuss how to select a vaccine given an area’s perceived COVID risks. China vaccines could be supplied to other countries, especially to developing countries. 10+ bn doses of COVID-19 vaccines will be needed globally to achieve herd immunity. Developing countries and COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX) would have to seek additional capacities. By YE21, we estimate the total capacity of China COVID-19 vaccines could exceed 2.5 bn doses, and China has ~500 mn doses of overseas orders. Logistics-wise, inactivated vaccines have an advantage as they can be stored in 2-8ºC temperature. Domestic market model of China COVID-19 vaccines; ~US$12 bn sales in 2021E. The Chinese government is providing a free vaccination programme, and we think the government should have strong determination in getting a large number of people vaccinated.