Global commodity prices fell 14 percent in the first quarter of 2023, and by the end of March, they were roughly 30 percent below their historic peak in June 2022. The surge in prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has largely been unwound on a combination of slowing economic activity, favorable winter weather, and a global reallocation of commodity trade flows. For the remainder of this year, commodity prices are forecast to remain broadly unchanged. However, prices are still expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels, which will continue to weigh on affordability and food security. Upside risks to prices include possible disruptions in the supply of energy and metals (in part due to trade restrictions), intensifying geopolitical tensions, a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in China’s industrial sector, and adverse weather events. Disappointing global growth is the major downside risk.