A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook(WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels duringFebruary 15, 2023, to March 15, 2023, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchangerate mechanism II, which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that establishedpolicies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policiesfor selected economies, see Box A1 in the Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $73.13 a barrelin 2023 and $68.90 a barrel in 2024; that the three-month government bond yield for the United States will average5.1 percent in 2023 and 4.5 percent in 2024, that for the euro area will average 2.8 percent in 2023 and 3.0percent in 2024, and that for Japan will average –0.1 percent in 2023 and 0.0 percent in 2024; and that the10-year government bond yield for the United States will average 3.8 percent in 2023 and 3.6 percent in 2024,that for the euro area will average 2.5 percent in 2023 and 2.8 percent in 2024, and that for Japan will average0.6 percent in 2023 and 2024. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertaintiessurrounding them add to the margin of error that would, in any event, be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through March 28, 2023.
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