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瑞信-港股博彩行业之澳门博彩业:尽管疫苗有希望,但结构性问题依然存在-2021.1.19-58页

# 澳门博彩 # 新冠 # 投行报告 大小:3.38M | 页数:58 | 上架时间:2021-01-26 | 语言:英文

瑞信-港股博彩行业之澳门博彩业:尽管疫苗有希望,但结构性问题依然存在-2021.1.19-58页.pdf

瑞信-港股博彩行业之澳门博彩业:尽管疫苗有希望,但结构性问题依然存在-2021.1.19-58页.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: ZF报告分享

撰写机构: 瑞信

出版日期: 2021-01-19

摘要:

Excessive optimism in the price. The sector is currently trading at -17% since Jan 20; even GGR is -65% from the pre-COVID-19 level. While market has been hopeful on the vaccine, we believe challenges remain: (1) even with the vaccine, visibility remains low in 2H, depending on coverage (likely ~40% by year end), effectiveness, and production and (2) medium term, structural headwinds including regulatory, weaker VIP system impairing capital flow, mix change of players towards mid-end mass would drag recovery.

Key differentiating ideas: (1) COVID-19 is not the key constraint: China domestic intra province travel resumes, but visits to Macau are still fairly low despite zero new local infection cases for more than nine months. We believe that a key constraint now is not the COVID-19 test, but regulatory. On the ground, we hear that frequent gamblers are taking a longer time to obtain visas, money flow is still tight, and junket credit extension is cautious.

(2) Regulatory tightening is ongoing: China’s newly amended criminal law, which includes casino operation and cross-border (Macau included) gambling facilitation, will be effective 1-Mar-2021. Many junkets and premium mass hosts plan to limit their China visits.

(3) Consistent low VIP hold may indicate that VIP rolling may not reflect all true demand.

(4) Mass mix shift towards the mid-end: High-end premium mass (30% of mass GGR) sees a weaker outlook amid constraints to capital accessibility and lower visit frequency. It is also tougher to grow new players amid tight regulatory controls and VIP weakness. A mid-to-base mass-led recovery would be gradual and take longer to absorb new casino supply. (5) Rapid management sell down of casino stake: is also a negative sign.

Maintain cautious sector view. We cut GGR 2021/2022 forecasts by 14%/12%. With that, we cut 2021E/2022E earnings by 12%/10%, which are 21%/15% below street.

We see further downside risks on earnings. The sector is already trading slightly above the 2019 level, at 12x 2022E EBITDA (historical average of 12.5x). While we stay long-term positive on Macau, we suggest waiting for a better entry level. We maintain NEUTRAL on Galaxy and Sands China, and UNDERPERFORM on Wynn and MSC. We downgrade MLCO/Melco, MGM China, and SJM to UNDERPERFORM (from Neutral).

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