Key trends in 2021: (1) Despite near-term headwind from COVID-19 resurgence, normalising consumer behaviour should lead to a strong rebound in out-of-home spend vs. the fading at-home consumption, while some behaviour (e-tailing) might linger for longer; (2) inflationary pressure manageable for leading players with strong brand equity and supply chain, given the more favourable competitive dynamics; (3) Chinese brands to further gain share (especially in sportswear and cosmetics); and (4) rotating to discretionary sectors that are attractively valued. Prefer discretionary to staples. We upgrade sportswear to our top pick among sectors, as we see secular trends such as increasing health consciousness among consumers and accelerated DTC channel shifts by brands post COVID. We remain positive on restaurants (accelerating store openings) and white goods (domestic air-con turnaround and improving competition dynamics). We are turning slightly less constructive on baijiu and beer post the strong rally since July 2020, yet fundamentals remain robust underpinned by on-premise recovery and accelerating premiumisation trend. Small appliances and supermarkets are our least preferred sub-sectors given fading food-at-home demand and intensified competition (Figure 29 for our sub-sector summary view). Stock calls. We prefer post-COVID recovery plays with secular growth and reasonable valuation and suggest investors accumulate on near-term pullback: Li-Ning (upgrading to Outperform) as we expect it to lead the sportswear recovery and direct-to consumers to drive margin upside. Haidilao (more store roll-outs), Gree (air-con turnaround), Mengniu (healthy organic growth with margin improvement), Moutai (channel mix/price hike to drive further growth), CRB (share gainer in premium segment) and Proya (riding premiumisation of domestic cosmetics). Least preferred names: Sun-Art, Supor and Yihai (COVID beneficiaries). We also upgrade Anta to Outperform and downgrade Yanghe to Neutral.
相关报告
国际投行报告-全球芯片行业:芯片的冲突-台积电、三星和英特尔(英)
4290
类型:行研
上传时间:2022-06
标签:投行报告、芯片、冲突)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
HSBC-中国房地产和物业管理行业2022年展望-2021.11.9-75页
3686
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、房地产、物业)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
汇丰-中国汽车芯片
3460
类型:行研
上传时间:2022-07
标签:汽车、芯片、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
HSBC-全球投资策略之未来城市:城市化形态的变化-2021.4-54页
2551
类型:策略
上传时间:2021-05
标签:投行报告、未来城市、城市化)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-2021年全球财富报告(英)
2469
类型:专题
上传时间:2021-06
标签:全球财富、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
中国2024年下半年消费品零售业半年度报告
1867
类型:行研
上传时间:2025-02
标签:消费品、零售、2024H2)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
瑞信-2022全球投资展望:股票、地区和宏观-2021.11.17-194页
1832
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、2022投资展望、宏观经济)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
消费品和零售供应链战略谋变
1650
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-03
标签:消费品、零售供应链)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-全球半导体行业:中国集成电路产业的不均衡崛起-2021.1.20-184页
1644
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-01
标签:半导体、中国集成电路、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-全球财富报告2020-2020.10-56页
1639
类型:专题
上传时间:2020-10
标签:全球财富、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
积分充值
30积分
6.00元
90积分
18.00元
150+8积分
30.00元
340+20积分
68.00元
640+50积分
128.00元
990+70积分
198.00元
1640+140积分
328.00元
微信支付
余额支付
积分充值
应付金额:
0 元
请登录,再发表你的看法
登录/注册