Human spaceflight has evolved from a world that was once the purview of highly trained government astronauts to one in which a member of the public is able to purchase a ticket to space—albeit a very expensive one. Although space travel by private citizens is still revolutionary and headline-making, it could conceivably become more routine in the years ahead.

Like the evolution of other industries, the question of how and when the spaceflight industry should be regulated at a federal level is receiving increasing attention—not only within the industry and federal agencies responsible but also from Congress.

In 2015, Congress directed the Secretary of Transportation to contract for an independent report that would provide an assessment of whether the commercial space industry was ready to transition to a safety framework that might include regulations. The RAND Corporation was asked to conduct this assessment, the results of which are contained in this report. The assessment primarily covers three topics: the progress the commercial space industry has made in adopting voluntary standards, the industry’s progress in meeting key industry metrics set out by the Federal Aviation Administration in 2017, and whether the industry has reached a level of maturity such that certain areas identified in previous Federal Aviation Administration reports were ready for regulatory action. This research report reflects work conducted from May 2022 to December 2022. This report should be of interest to Congress, federal department and agency leaders and policymakers, the commercial space industry, professional standards organizations, the space commercial industry, and the general public.

This research was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration and was conducted within the Community Health and Environmental Policy Program within RAND’s Social and Economic Well-Being division.