■ CS Greater China Tech Conference company takeaways. Credit Suisse's Virtual Greater China Tech Conference over 6-8 January featured record 72 corporates split between hardware/semiconductors and Internet, four expert speakers, and over 700 registered investors for a look into 2021 business trends. Our report includes takeaways from 37 of the 45 hardware/semiconductor companies and 11 Internet companies.

■ Optimistic demand and a sellers’ market in tech. The conference tone was uniformly positive, in line with our Technology and TSMC outlook reports last week. Companies are upbeat on demand, with COVID-19 second-wave stay-at-home demand, online education and supply constraints keeping PC and home consumer orders healthy, supplemented by 1H21 recovery in hyperscale/cloud, expected doubling of 5G units to over 500 mn, and improving auto/EV/industrial as the vaccine rolls out. Offsets include FX appreciation and higher component costs, though most companies are reporting a sellers’ market to start the year.

■ Supply constraints at peak intensity, but may persist through the year. Supply constraints reached their peak intensity in late 2020 and are persisting through the 1Q21 low season across advanced and mature foundry, display, power management, CPU, advanced substrates, driver ICs, and CIS. Constraints are fueled by upside stay-at-home demand plus rising content in 5G/data centre, stretching lead times, and draw down of component inventory in 2H20, along with the desire to carry more inventory due to disrupted supply chains.

■ Results to support the recent share price run. We expect TSMC to kick off a positive results season the coming Thursday and see positive earnings revisions continuing, with risks to monitor from any sharper slowdown in WFH demand, though we expect cycle strength should continue through the year, with risk only into 2022 if capacity ramps up sharper and 5G China saturates and Europe/EM are still not ramping. Our top picks in our semiconductor coverage are TSMC, Mediatek, ASE, Realtek, and Chunghwa Precision, and elsewhere in tech include Largan, Lens Tech, Luxshare, Murata, Parade, Quanta, Samsung, Sunny Optical, and Will Semi.