The consensus story for copper is close to euphoric: Vaccine progress bodes well for a global demand recovery, visible inventories are low (although China has been stockpiling), and decarbonisation pledges are coming fast and furious. The copper price is now well above prior expectations, sitting near a 7-year high in both USD and RMB terms. In this note we assess supply and demand outlooks and refresh our copper price deck. China should have growth momentum into 2021, however credit growth and PMIs have likely topped out, and property policy remains tight. The rest of the world is expected to pick up where China leaves off. Mine supply is expected to recover from a heavy disruption year, however we note that 2021 is a big election year in Latin America (40% of supply), which could pose risks. We expect a modest 2021 shortage. By 2022, supply growth from a number of new and existing mines is expected to drive the market into surplus for five years until another shortage can emerge.