Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data,weclassify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions.Wethenmodel the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions asafinite stateMarkovchain,andstudyhowcountriesmovebetween states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses aremore persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.