Here comes the Ox. And things are looking a lot brighter. After all the suffering over the past year, it's time for healing. Vaccines, so it is hoped, will do the trick and restore a measure of normality. Still, for many, especially in the southern and western reaches of Asia, their arrival won't be as prompt as desired. Some patience is thus still needed. Confidence, however, should begin to revive demand a little sooner: especially services should benefit as people begin to venture out again. In this, the recovery will likely differ from earlier cycles, being services, rather than manufacturing, led. This carries two implications. The first is that trade, having proven so resilient in recent months, may not strengthen much further, or at least won't surge as much as in previous recoveries. The second is that inflation may prove more volatile, in part because the cost of services may adjust more quickly than in the past. And that will complicate the job for central bankers, who will need to deploy various tools to keep things on an even keel: balancing the need to support a still fragile recovery with the need to curb rising leverage and potentially frothy asset prices. About time that things snapped back.