As fiscal stimulus is delivered, vaccines are distributed, and economic activity recovers, US real yields are forecasted to move higher throughout 2021.

 With real yields rising, we maintain our July bearish view on gold and see gold prices exiting 2021 at a $1,650/oz 4Q21 average.

 The Fed could “fairly soon” introduce “qualitative outcome-based guidance” regarding the future path of its asset purchases and could start taper discussions later next year. We see gold averaging $1,350/oz in 2022.

 On silver, while prices have been more resilient than expected, we do not think boosted solar capacity buildout will be meaningful enough to decouple silver from gold and precious fundamental drivers and see silver prices moving lower towards $20.6/oz in 4Q21.

 Further supply disruptions have swung the platinum market into deficit this year and amplified the shortfall in palladium.

 On supply, the rebound in South African PGM supply next year will be critical. On demand, platinum is finally looking set to gain at palladium’s expense with regard to autocatalyst substitution.

 We expect platinum prices to remain supported in the coming quarter before losing ground over the balance of the year. Yet, fundamentals in 2022/23 now look more constructive, prompting upgrades to our forecast.

 Palladium looks due for a catch-up rally in the near-term and we maintain our $2,450/oz 1Q21 average. However, the days still look numbered on palladium’s multi-year bull cycle and we still call for prices to sell lower towards an average of $1,900/oz in 4Q21.