Non-OECD countries to boost global population to 9.5 billion people by 2045 The global population is set to increase by 1.6 billion between 2021 and 2045, from 7.9 billion to 9.5 billion. Population growth in the non-OECD region accounts for over 96% of the expected total increase, with the OECD accounting for under 4%. The global working-age population (aged between 15 and 64) is anticipated to expand by 870 million throughout the projection period. Overall, the relative share of the global working age population is set to fall slightly, from 65% in 2021 to 63% in 2045. Urbanization is forecast to expand further in the coming decades, with 66% of the world’s population projected to live in cities by 2045.

Global GDP is set to increase by 3% p.a. on average over the period 2021–2045 The medium-term economic growth dynamic will be influenced by the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic, the inflationary trend in connection with financial tightening, and the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Towards the end of the medium-term period, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will settle at 3.1%. Within the OECD, economic growth is forecast to average 1.7% per annum (p.a.) for the period 2021–2045.

Global growth through to 2045, estimated at 3% p.a. on average, will be largely driven by non-OECD countries. These countries are expected to expand by 3.8% p.a., primarily through improving labour productivity and a growing working age population.