As the energy sector’s single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, coal is at the heart of the global conversation on energy and climate. All scenarios modelled by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for the future of energy supply and demand that are consistent with international climate goals feature a rapid decline in global coal emissions. Without such a decline, it will be impossible to avoid severe impacts from a changing climate.

As our new analysis in this World Energy Outlook Special Report makes clear, more than 95% of today’s global coal consumption occurs in countries that have pledged to achieve net zero emissions. At the same time, however, the data show that the world is far from heading decisively in that direction. Global coal use and emissions have essentially plateaued at a high level, with no definitive signs of an imminent reduction. In fact, coal use in some countries has seen a modest uptick as a result of the current global energy crisis. Even if this is temporary, as our analysis suggests, it is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero – especially the narrow‐but‐ achievable goal of doing so by 2050.  The current situation in energy markets underscores the huge challenges of reducing emissions while maintaining energy security. Renewable energy options such as solar and wind are the most cost‐effective new sources of electricity generation in most markets, but despite their impressively rapid growth in recent years, they have not yet brought about a decline in coal’s global emissions. Reducing global coal emissions while ensuring reliable and affordable energy supplies and tackling the social consequences of this change will require a dedicated and determined policy effort by governments. Multiple challenges remain. In many countries, the way in which markets and contracts have been designed mean that coal plants are effectively shielded from competition. In the industrial sector, accelerated innovation is crucial to bring to market the technologies needed to drive down coal emissions in key areas such as steel and cement.

Building up clean energy assets to replace coal is absolutely essential to reach environmental goals and support economic growth while safeguarding energy security. At the same time, carefully designed policies and government coordination with other stakeholders such as industry and labour organisations are fundamental to enable workers and communities to adjust to changes affecting the coal industry, which has deep links to jobs and economic development in coal‐producing regions. These challenges are especially significant in developing economies where electricity demand is growing rapidly, coal is often the incumbent fuel for electricity generation, and industrial uses of coal are on the rise. This is one of the reasons why, if the international community fails to manage coal transitions appropriately, I see a real risk of fractures emerging between some advanced and developing economies, which could lead to damaging geopolitical rifts globally. There are some encouraging signs of international collaboration in the discussions on Just Energy Transition Partnerships with South Africa, Indonesia and other major emerging economies. But there’s much more to be done to match funding with needs and to make progress on implementation.This Special Report is designed to provide pragmatic, real‐world guidance on how policy makers can achieve a reduction in coal emissions without harming their economies or energy security. Its analysis covers a range of policy and technology areas, including the potential for carbon capture, utilisation and storage. And it offers recommendations to improve financing for the phasing down of coal and to address the social and employment aspects of this transition. The report makes it clear that there is no one single approach to putting coal emissions into decline but a range of approaches tailored to national circumstances.

The report benefitted not only from the IEA’s unparalleled energy data and modelling capabilities but also the input of a High‐Level Advisory Group of global energy, climate and finance leaders that I convened earlier this year. This advisory group was chaired by Michael R. Bloomberg, the UN Secretary‐General’s Special Envoy for Climate Ambition and Solutions, and co‐chaired by Arifin Tasrif, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia, which currently holds the G20 Presidency, and Teresa Ribera Rodríguez, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge of Spain. I would like to thank the chair, co‐chairs and all the members of the advisory group for the important perspectives and strategic insights they provided for the report.  The IEA is deeply committed to supporting governments around the world as they navigate the current global energy crisis and seek to tackle climate change. I believe this report will be a valuable tool in efforts to design policies that support secure, affordable and fair transitions to clean energy. In particular, the social and employment aspects of these transitions is an important and expanding area of work for the IEA, as reflected by our Global Commission on People‐Centred Clean Energy Transitions, our Clean Energy Labour Council and our World Energy Employment report.

I’m very grateful for the dedication and expertise of the IEA team who produced this Special Report under the exemplary leadership of my colleagues Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould. I strongly thank and commend them for this vital contribution to the international energy and climate conversation at such a pivotal moment.