The title of this report is ‘Navigating an uncertain future’ – a title that is regularly given to scenario studies, by Shell among others. The subtitle of this report is: “An exploration of China’s influence on the future Dutch maritime logistics hub function”. This subtitle indicates the subject matter of this scenario study. We nevertheless also wish to highlight the great uncertainty of the present situation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a shift in the world order, only a short time after the coronavirus pandemic that also brought unprecedented changes, not least due to China’s maintenance of lockdowns in the major seaports. The war in Ukraine will have a lasting weakening effect on the ‘New Silk Road’ rail link between China and Europe. But China’s assertive response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan also makes an outcome we did not consider – an ultimate invasion of Taiwan by China – more credible. Such a development has not been included in the scenarios developed in this report, simply because it was not as credible a year ago. Scenarios are generally closely related to the period in which they are developed. These developments have further increased the uncertainty about the future and once again highlighted the impact of geopolitics among the major powers.