Refineries and petrochemical plants are beginning to be rightfully recognized as a significant source of  greenhouse gas emissions. In total, the United States alone emits an estimated 430 million metric tons of  carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂e) a year from the refining and petrochemical industries, equivalent to  over 100 new coal-fired power plants.i,1  Analysts project petrochemical consumption to rise by 3% to 4% annually, doubling the industry by 2040,  although growth could be as low as 1% if demand reduction measures are adopted.2  Refining is not on a  similarly steep growth curve, but if demand for petroleum products experiences massive shifts, refineries  will need to significantly adapt their operations.ii The time to address these sectors is now. While the  anticipated demand for transportation fuels is likely to decrease, petrochemicals especially represent a  potential growth area for the oil and gas industry. 

Emissions from these industries are still largely opaque and show the pressing need to obtain real-time  data by source. For this report, refining emissions were estimated and forecast based on a granular model  that segmented refineries by type of processing complexity and crude oil. Petrochemical emissions,  because of the wide range of variations in plant configurations, are based on the primary petrochemical  feedstocks and associated products (first and second derivatives). Over time, the estimates will  become more granular and assigned directly to companies and assets as more satellites and real-time  measurements become available.

Understanding the emissions associated with refining and petrochemical production is only the first step. 

More open-source data is needed to allow investors, regulators, and the public to understand both the  financial and physical risks these plants pose. Policymakers need to look at steps to clean up local air  pollutants and encourage the adoption of efficient technologies, as well as support recycling and material  alternatives. Industrial refiners need to pilot and scale green hydrogen production on-site. At a systems  level, regulators, investors, and the industry need to clearly understand how demand changes in both  petrochemicals and refined petroleum products will affect the underlying rate of crude oil demand. 

With knowledge of the forecast demand changes and the associated emissions of different oil and gas  processes and products, the industry and its relevant actors will be better equipped to construct and  implement strategies to reduce emissions while meeting evolving demand.