The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is at a pivotal point in its collective energy future. This report outlines energy transition pathways that focus on renewables, end-use electrification, energy efficiency and emerging technologies, such as hydrogen. The main focus of this report is the 1.5°C Scenario (1.5-S), an energy pathway for ASEAN that is aligned with IRENA’s global 1.5-degree pathway from the World Energy Transitions Outlook.

This report shows how the region can transition from just 19% renewable energy share in final energy in 2018 to 65% by 2050, and in the process reduce energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 75% compared to current policies.

In the near-term to 2030, emphasis should focus on key transition technologies such as increasing solar PV to over 240 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, putting over 13 million battery-electric vehicles on the road with 3.7 million charging stations, and widescale efforts focusing on improving energy efficiency, materials efficiency and circular economy, and scaling up sustainable bioenergy, hydropower and geothermal energy sources.

In the longer-term, regional power system integration should be fostered and improved to further utilise a total renewable energy power expansion reaching around 2 770 GW to 3 400 GW by 2050 in the 1.5-S. Coal power plant phaseout should be expedited in the near-term, and expansion of fossil fuel dependent infrastructure avoided wherever possible to avoid stranded assets.

Transmission and distribution grids will need expansion and reinforcement to meet growing electricity consumption and enable more efficient and reliable system operation.

This sees an international expansion of lines nearing a total 200 GW by 2050 in the 1.5-S, deepening power system integration across ASEAN.