美联储-风险周期对商业周期的影响：历史观点（英）-2022.9

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美联储-风险周期对商业周期的影响：历史观点（英）-2022.9

# 风险周期 # 商业周期 # 股市波动大小：0.43M | 页数：51 | 上架时间：2022-09-18 | 语言：英文

美联储-风险周期对商业周期的影响：历史观点（英）-2022.9.pdf

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美联储-风险周期对商业周期的影响：历史观点（英）-2022.9.pdf

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类型: 专题

上传者: 范泽林

撰写机构: 美联储

出版日期: 2022-09-18

摘要：

We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs on risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global-risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local-risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality.

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