Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a round of severe price increases for basic foodstuffs including grains, notably wheat, and sunflower oil, which were already elevated by the pandemic’s impact and supply chain issues. Food prices have also been impacted by the major disruptions in the energy markets, resulting from Russia’s invasion. Food processing, transportation, and the price of fertilizer, are among the energy intensive inputs into food supplies that fluctuate with the price of energy. Demand for corn for ethanol has also increased, also putting pressure on supplies of corn and exacerbating food shortages. The rising food prices have made the challenge of controlling inflation and ameliorating a recession that much more difficult. As the invasion continued into the spring planting season, the UN warned of a severe food crisis. That danger still persists – with many countries around the world at risk for further food insecurity because of higher prices and lack of supply.1 

But the global food insecurity situation has become more uncertain to project amid conflicting trends. More recently, there has been some brightening of the outlook. Food prices dropped significantly in July, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline since hitting record highs earlier this year. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 140.9 points in July 2022, down 13.3 points from June. The July decline was the steepest monthly fall in the FFPI reported since October 2008. Prices dropped on increased supply for some commodities, notably edible oils and the hope that the Russia-Ukraine grain agreement would lead to easing of supply pressures