We outline two divergent exit strategies of the U.S. from the post COVID-19 debt-overhang, and analyze their implications on Emerging Markets and global stability. The first strategy is the U.S. aiming at returning to the 2019, pre-COVID mode of loose fiscal policy and accommodating monetary policy. The short-term benefits of this strategy include faster economic growth as long as the snowball effect – the difference between the interest rate on public debt and the growth rate – is negative. This strategy may entail a growing tail risk of a deeper crisis triggered by a future reversal of the snowball effect, inducing a deeper future sudden stop crises and instability of Emerging Markets. We illustrate this scenario by evaluating Emerging Markets’ lost growth decade during the 1980s, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the U.S. during 1974-1984. The second strategy entails a two-pronged approach. First, turning U.S. fiscal priorities from fighting COVID’s medical and economic challenges, towards investment in social,medical and physical infrastructures. Second, with a lag, promoting a gradual fiscal adjustment aiming at reaching overtime primary-surpluses and debt resilience. We illustrate this scenario by reviewing the exit strategy of the U.S. post-WWII, and its repercussions on the ‘Phoenix Emergence’ of Western Europe and Japan from WWII destruction. The contrast between the two exit strategies suggests that the two-pronged approach is akin to an upfront investment in greater long-term global stability. We also empirically show how lowering the cost of serving public debt has been associated with higher real output growth.
相关报告
最新翻译!红杉美国52页PPT:如何“猫冬”(中英对照)
2.3w+
类型:宏观
上传时间:2022-05
标签:经济寒冬、疫情、企业求生)
语言:中英
金额:5元
《后疫情时代:大重构》读书笔记
1.0w+
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2021-04
标签:世界经济、政治、疫情)
语言:中文
金额:6.6元
美国智库1.6万字报告:疫情后中国小微企业面临的挑战与展望(中英文版)
7786
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-09
标签:小微企业、中国企业、疫情)
语言:中英
金额:5元
高盛2万字报告:2024年新兴市场展望(中英对照)
4956
类型:宏观
上传时间:2023-12
标签:新兴市场、投资策略、货币政策)
语言:中英
金额:7元
疫情下中国家庭的财富变动趋势2022Q3:中国家庭财富指数调研报告
3986
类型:专题
上传时间:2022-11
标签:疫情、家庭财富、2022Q3)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
中国家庭金融调查与研究中心&蚂蚁集团-2022Q1中国家庭财富指数调研报告-疫情下中国家庭的财富变动趋势
3826
类型:专题
上传时间:2022-04
标签:2022Q1、疫情、家庭财富)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
世界银行4万字:新冠疫情与多重阻力扰乱中国经济增长正常化(中英文版)
3567
类型:宏观
上传时间:2022-06
标签:疫情、中国经济、房地产)
语言:中文
金额:10元
“985废物”的集体失意及其超越:疫情危机下困境精英大学生的“废”心理审视
3210
类型:专题
上传时间:2021-04
标签:98废物、疫情、精英大学生)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
全球数字经济白皮书:疫情冲击下的复苏新曙光-100页
3122
类型:专题
上传时间:2021-09
标签:数字经济、疫情、白皮书)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
《2023新兴市场出海白皮书》0531B
2884
类型:专题
上传时间:2023-06
标签:新兴市场、出海、跨境电商)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
积分充值
30积分
6.00元
90积分
18.00元
150+8积分
30.00元
340+20积分
68.00元
640+50积分
128.00元
990+70积分
198.00元
1640+140积分
328.00元
微信支付
余额支付
积分充值
应付金额:
0 元
请登录,再发表你的看法
登录/注册