• The strong Fed move is in line with significant upward revisions we’ve made to our Edge CB calls • But as growth considerations emerge, our forecasts may be settling • Some CBs are already done, with eventual easing ahead for many, but mind exceptions where financial stability must be guarded The US Fed delivered a strong, until recently unexpected, 75bp rate increase this week, putting the focus globally squarely on the risks of fallout as US monetary policy transitions towards a restrictive stance. As we highlighted the last time the Fed accelerated its pace in early May, central banks across our Edge set of countries have already been reacting. Policy rate moves that initially were aimed at normalizing easy policy have ratcheted up to confront the second round effects of supply chains exacerbated by the commodity price shock. The sense of urgency has been qualified to varying degrees by cyclical conditions emerging out of the pandemic, but also in some cases through balance of payments pressures.