Financial markets, like the world we live in, arecharacterised by extreme complexity. It is an arrogant conceit to suggest that one could know everything there is to know about them, that one could fashion a model that would cover every eventuality. Mr Syed’s book encapsulates with elegance and accessibility the importance of learning from one’s mistakes, of accepting that failure, in any context and however large or small, is something to build on. But to do that requires intellectual honesty, an acceptance of genuine positive feedback, a willingness to test one’s theories and ideas, and to be ready to adapt them if they are found to be sub-optimal. These traits are rare in banking culture. But they are important and should be adopted.

金融市场和我们所生活的世界一样，都具有极度复杂的特点。一个人可以知道所有关于他们的事情，一个人可以设计一个涵盖所有可能发生的事情的模型，这是一种傲慢的自负。赛义德先生的书以优雅和通俗易懂的方式概括了从错误中学习的重要性，接受失败的重要性，无论是在什么情况下，无论大小，都是值得我们借鉴的。但要做到这一点，就需要智力上的诚实，接受真正的正面反馈，愿意检验自己的理论和想法，并准备好在发现它们不太理想时加以调整。这些特征在银行文化中很少见。但它们很重要，应该被采纳。