High inflation and rising commodity prices (oil, wheat, and packaging) are negatives, both through inflation and higher costs, as oil and soft commodity prices continue to rise. In terms of impact on countries, energy and commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia), should remain resilient, but at the losing end would be the Philippines (heavy reliance on imported oil), Vietnam and Thailand; these may face the brunt of the commodity price spike. Here we assess further the potential impact of higher commodity prices on the ASEAN consumer space, especially the manufacturers that are likely to be hardest hit. Our overall analysis shows that EPS risk is higher for food manufacturers, as other sub-sectors, such as retailers and home improvement counters, commodity/suppliers and food service, will likely be more defensive (but not immune) against cost shocks. The extent of additional inflationary pressure, however, will fundamentally depend on three things: (1) pricing strategy, (2) inventory management, (3) elasticity of consumers to rising prices. Gross margin expectations for staples show that companies high in our score card are likely to have resilient margins in the next two years. Companies that scored high in our ranking were Heineken, Carlsberg, Unilever Indonesia, Sido & Indofood, while lower score companies were Century Pacific, San Miguel F&B, Masan, Vietnam Dairy & Monde Nissin. While most stocks in our ASEAN consumer coverage are trading below their pre-Covid 19 levels (using 31-Dec-2019 as a proxy), we are cognizant of the risks. During past oil shocks, the performance of staples and discretionary segments in ASEAN seem to move in the same direction, but a more pronounced derating can be seen for discretionary stocks. Historical evidence shows that staples tend to bounce back faster than discretionary post peak, and that both segments have a negative correlation to rising prices of oil. We prefer our fundamental framework of names that are top franchises in ASEAN, with bias towards retailers and select food service companies: CPALL, SIDO, FARM, PNJ, and JFC.