The global expansion is facing its first material resiliency test as an already substantial squeeze on household purchasing power, related to surging consumer price inflation, is being magnified by commodity price spikes associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As if that were not enough, China’s  difficulty in managing its Omicron wave with a zero-tolerance policy is  weighing heavily on its domestic demand and adding to global supply chain  pressures. In response, we have materially altered 1H22 forecasts to show a  worsening growth-inflation trade-off (Figure 1). We have lowered our global  GDP forecast by 2.5%-pts since the start of the year, to a sub-par 1.7%ar. The  upward revision to inflation is more substantial: we now project CPI inflation  (ex. Turkey) to reach an unprecedented 7.8%ar during 1H22.