This book outlines a theory of expectations. In my theory, expectations depend on institutions. Markets, especially financial markets, are not “efficient always” or “efficient never.” They are more or less efficient, depending on institutions.

Brisk competition and stable rules of market exchange create an evolutionary filter of profit and loss. This filter tends to produce market efficiency. When the operation of this filter is disrupted, by an activist central bank for example, market participants are thrown into ignorance and uncertainty. In financial markets, herding results. Expectations are more prescient in the institutional settings tending toward efficiency, less prescient otherwise.

这本书概述了期望理论。在我的理论中，期望取决于制度。市场，特别是金融市场，并不是“总是有效率”或“从不有效率”，它们或多或少是有效率的，取决于机构。

激烈的竞争和稳定的市场交易规则创造了一个渐进的盈亏过滤器。这种过滤器往往产生市场效率。例如，当这个过滤器的运行被一个激进的中央银行打乱时，市场参与者就会陷入无知和不确定之中。在金融市场，羊群效应。在倾向于效率的制度环境中，期望更具预见性，否则就不那么具有预见性。