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JPM_全球_商品_2022-04-28_4075607

# 全球商品 大小:0.45M | 页数:14 | 上架时间:2022-05-06 | 语言:英文
JPM_全球_商品_2022-04-28_4075607.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: ZF报告分享

撰写机构: J.P.摩根

出版日期: 2022-05-06

摘要:

 In a special address at the Atlantic Council, the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for a new Bretton Woods framework, a new international order. Russia's invasion of Ukraine marked a pivot point for the global economy necessitating a realignment in the US trade objective from free to "free but secure".

 Going forward, US trade policy would no longer involve merely leaving markets to their own devices, but would rather uphold a set of core values and principles—from national security and a rules-based global order to data protection, human rights and international taxes.

 Under the new trade order, supply chains would be favored with many trusted countries that share a set of norms and values about how to operate in the global economy and about how to run the global economic system— the so called "friend-shoring".

 Pertaining to commodities, this new plurilateral trade order would realign supply chains among like-minded partners with excess upstream reserves to ensure the availability, affordability, security, and sustainability of natural resources.

 Economic efficiency will no longer act as the driving force for relocation as the decision for partnership will be based on political considerations.

Downstream processing capacities like smelting and refining would also need to be built out.

 The necessary outcome of this proposed new trade order are significantly higher costs of production and supply chain redundancies.

 The management of strategic and commercial inventories will also have to change, replacing the just-in-time supply chain with just-in-case. This means that OECD strategic inventories of commodities like oil, metals and grains will have to increase significantly.

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