Introduction

This Special Report by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) will examine how key Association

of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam – are emerging

after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. From June 2020, these four countries announced the end or

easing of their lockdown measures and began to reopen their economies and business sectors. Their prospects

matter not only to their own citizens but to the region and to Singapore as a hub, partner and investor. These

four key economies represent over 70 per cent of overall ASEAN gross domestic product (GDP).1

This report will consider pre-existing economic and political challenges and how some of these have either

stabilised or been sharpened and aggravated by the pandemic. The focus on the pandemic has generally

meant that political developments have been muted in the first half of 2020. But as each country emerges

from restrictions, political contestations and economic challenges are restarting; there are trends and risks

emerging that may well move more quickly in the coming months.

In our analysis, there were important differences in the degree, timing, and capacity of COVID-19 measures.

Vietnam acted early on and effectively controlled the health situation, although a second wave in end July will

test its efforts. While delayed, Malaysia and Thailand seem to have been eventually and relatively effective.

Concerns are however that Indonesia acted late and has yet to control the effects of the pandemic, even as

the economy begins to re-open.

What of their politics and economic prospects? Recovery is critical and possible but the path for each country

will differ given the varied prospects for key sectors, such as manufacturing, resources, and tourism. As for

politics, the lockdown witnessed something of a hiatus. With the end of the lockdown, it is not just business but

politics that resumes. The next few months could see a flurry of developments and these can be destabilising,

especially if any country suffers a second wave of infections and economic prospects do not pick up.