1) Primary energy capex fell 35% over the past decade, and we expect it to grow 60% by 2025 to $1.4 trn (from c.$0.9 trn in 2021).

2) This European energy crisis has a strong seasonal component (winter demand for gas is >2x higher than in summer) that requires LNG imports and hydrogen to complement renewable power growth.

3) Analyzing the global LNG project pipeline, we identify 156 mtpa, or c.US$139 bn of new projects to be sanctioned over the next 5 years, with average economics of $8-10/mcf.

4) Green Hydrogen is Europe’s long-term solution to security of supply, seasonal storage and industrial demand. RePowerEU targets a 4x upgrade to previous Green Hydrogen production by 2030.

5) The average capex intensity of low carbon energy developments is c.2x that of hydrocarbons, further enhancing the need for energy capex; we estimate the need for an incremental $1.5trn pa of capex by 2032.