Assessing the "new normal" — even stronger for longer. Even prior to the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the global LNG market was tightening. The Covid-driven price collapse in 2020 drove a wave of project delays and cancellations, while demand continued to grow. By 2021, this had pushed the market into a multiyear upcycle with higher, more volatile prices (see last year's note "Stronger for Longer"). Now, Europe's pivot away from Russian natural gas will require even more LNG, adding strain to an already tight market. Looking ahead, we expect this higher "call on LNG" to structurally alter global gas trade flows (more EU demand, less Asia growth), drive elevated prices for the next several years, and potentially support another wave of US & global project development.