While first and foremost a humanitarian crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine risks adding materially to existing economic and supply challenges for the global economy, just as the world was emerging from the shadow of the COVID pandemic. The world’s financial system is in a fragile state after two years of pandemic-induced disruption, with many economies facing high debt burdens and the challenge of attempting to normalise interest rates without derailing the recovery.

Increasingly punitive sanctions on Russian banks, leading companies, and prominent individuals, including the restriction of certain Russian banks from access to the SWIFT payments system - have precipitated a collapse in both the Russian stock exchange and the rouble exchange rate. Russia is likely to see the most severe hit to GDP growth beyond Ukraine itself as a result of the current crisis.