The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has upended the global economy, resulting in large losses of gross domestic product worldwide. This report reviews the economic track record of the United States and its main com-petitors and allies to discern how the dramatic economic changes induced by the disease could affect geopolitical competition and the future security environment. The report uses data through August 31, 2021. This research was completed in September 2021, before the February 2022 Russian inva-sion of Ukraine. It has not been subsequently revised.

The research reported here was conducted within the Strategy and Doc-trine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of fiscal year 2021 con-cept formulation.

The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.