Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown global commodity markets into turmoil. The global oil market – in which Russia is a major force – is one of the most heavily affected. Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer and the largest oil exporter.  

Significant strains are showing in the global oil market, compounding difficulties in natural gas markets and creating a looming emergency for global energy security. Oil prices have swung violently since the Russian invasion, with the global benchmark nearing the all-time high of USD 150 per barrel at times, putting the still fragile and uneven global economic recovery at risk. The United States and Canada are banning imports of Russian oil while the United Kingdom has announced plans to do so by the end of the year. The IEA’s latest Oil Market Report on 16 March identified the potential for a shut-in of 2.5 million barrels a day of Russian oil exports starting from April; but losses could increase should restrictions or public condemnation escalate. A prolonged period of volatility for markets appears likely.