Fastest-growing and highest-ROE banks in Asia. We differentiate our report by deep-diving into 19 Vietnamese banks (listed and non-listed), covering 80-90% of the system loans, to form our view on the sector. Our analysis indicates Vietnam could keep healthy credit growth at 10-14% over the next five to ten years. While the private credit-to-GDP ratio rose to 130-140%, household debt was still not stretched at ~50%. This still leaves ample room for strong retail credit expansion. We expect our covered banks in Vietnam to sustain the highest ROE vs regional peers in the next three years, driven by structural growth in CASA funding, rising fee income penetration, and falling credit cost over time. Undemanding valuation with catalysts. Although Vietnamese banks’ stocks had been the best-performing bank stocks in Asia the past few years, their valuations still look inexpensive, particularly for private banks. After re-rating over 100% from 2020, they are still trading at ~8.5x on PBV/ROE metric, at ~22% discount to regional peers. In 2022, we still expect their share prices to outperform regional peers, driven by further PBV re-rating, strong BV compounding at >20% p.a. in the next three years, and major government stimulus programs. Initiate coverage. We initiate coverage of five private banks (TCB, MBB, VIB, ACB, and VPB) and VCB, one of the major state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) in Vietnam. We rate TCB, MBB, VIB, and ACB (in order of our preference) OUTPERFORM, as we expect them to deliver 22-33% PBT growth and 22-30% ROE in 2022. We rate VPB and VCB as NEUTRAL. VPB, although we like its long-term prospect, still may need to deal with lingered provision pressure. VCB could continue to be under stress from government intervention risk.
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